Geopolitical Alpha - An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future

"The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking. noted John Kenneth Galbraith. Of Constraints and Preferences focuses on how the world has changed over the past decade, why investment and corporate professionals are not equipped to deal with that change, and why the usual way of doing political and geopolitical analysis is inadequate in the age of uncertainty and disruption. Marko Papc has a unique world view, one that offers investors an original window on geopolitics and the notion of geopolitcal alpha. In Of Contraints and Preference, he shares this world view and explores how a constrait-based approach to looking at the world can produce some powerful investment inghts. Preferences are optional and subject to constraints,whereas constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences. This is the maxim that makes up the constraint framework. It is simple and many will say that they inherently apply it already. But it is difficult remaining disciplined. Policymakers are like water. Predicting their behavior requires understanding of the relief of a hillside and knowing where water will find constraints to movement. e. Machiavelli was therefore wrong. Fortuna always wins. Policymakers are no better at beating fortuna with virtu than water is capable of willing itself to flow against the grain. Sp wamt constraits truly matter? Poltical, Economic & Financial, Geopolitical, and Constitutional. Papic demonstrates how to put an investment thesis together by reviewing the world through thiese constraint lenses. In the process, he shows how to use this einformation to make money or protect it. Like a sports gambler, the investor should not be rooting for one side over the other, but rather thinking about where the bookie/casino (but really, the market) has set the line. And bet against the line. After all, the job of the investor is to not predict who wins, but where the line is set"--
Forecast geopolitics and markets with this clear and insightful resource Geopolitical Alpha – An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future provides readers with an original and compelling approach to forecasting the future and beating the markets while doing so. Persuasively written by author, investment strategist, and geopolitical analyst Marko Papic, the book applies a novel framework for making sense of the cacophony of geopolitical risks with the eye towards generating investment-relevant insights. Geopolitical Alpha posits that investors should ignore the media-hyped narratives, insights from "smoke-filled rooms," and most of their political consultants and, instead, focus exclusively on the measurable, material constraints facing policymakers.  In the tug-of-war between policymaker preferences and their constraints, the latter always win out in the end. Papic uses a wealth of examples from the past decade to illustrate how one can use his constraint-framework to generate Geopolitical Alpha. In the process, the book discusses: What paradigm shifts will drive investment returns over the next decade Why investment and corporate professionals can no longer treat geopolitics as an exogenous risk How to ignore the media and focus on what drives market narratives that generate returns Perfect for investors, C-suite executives, and investment professionals, Geopolitical Alpha belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and finance.